Knowing that the Jets won’t be able to hold up in a shootout, he will be looking for the Jets quarterback to make multiple mistakes. Despite facing quality competition, the Chiefs pass defense has become formidable. Football Outsiders now rates the Chiefs as the sixth-best pass defense through their Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric. Esposito said he did think bettors would still use the Chiefs in teasers, especially at under -13. That’s something we have rarely (if ever) seen in the Mahomes era. Here we see the 2019 completion percentage of all NFL teams at all points of the field. The public wants to bet favorites, Bennett said, but they want to bet short favorites (-3 or less) or ones they can tease under a field goal. Five things we learned as the Chiefs trounced the Jets. — Patriots -21 vs. That philosophy has worked in the past decade. But every once in a while, a spread comes up that looks like it belongs on an Alabama game on a Saturday instead of an NFL game on a Sunday. Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE). But I’ve taken this tool a step further, allowing us to use it to measure defensive performance. The Chiefs will win convincingly, but I don’t see them quite covering the 19.5-point spread. Count me down for Sunday being the Chiefs’ Bell Game, in which he records more than 100 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns as Kansas City just barely misses covering what is a 20-point spread. “Once the point spread gets past a certain threshold — 14 or so — they lose interest,” he said. Betting on the NFL usually involves tight point spreads and games that come down to the final minute. Everyone else expected a Chiefs victory by 10 to 15 points — except for Craig Stout, who predicted a 28-24 win. Copyright © 2019 Las Vegas Review-Journal, Inc. | Privacy Policy, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes throws a pass under pressure from Denver Broncos defensive end Shelby Harris during the second half of an NFL football game against the Denver Broncos Sunday, Oct. 25, 2020, in Denver. For the Week 7 game against the Broncos, Matt Stagner’s call for a 38-17 Chiefs win came closest to the mark with just 12 points of error, moving him very close to Ron Kopp in the standings. If you already feel comfortable with these metrics, skip the link and keep reading! The rookie punter used his arm — not his leg — to make one of the game’s key plays. Please also read our Privacy Notice and Terms of Use, which became effective December 20, 2019. Why the NFL trade deadline is different in 2020: COVID-19 tests, cap-space questions and more — Broncos -26 vs. Jaguars (Oct. 13, 2013): Denver didn’t cover in a 35-19 victory. — Patriots -20½ vs. Colts (Dec. 4, 2011): New England didn’t cover in a 31-24 victory. Circa sportsbook manager Chris Bennett said large spreads tend to scare off NFL bettors. A BetMGM bettor is banking on New York to upset Tampa Bay (-13). Esposito said it was hard to bet against the Chiefs, who can be so devastating offensively. — Patriots -21 vs. Series tied 19-19-1 Such is the case this week, with the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs (6-1) favored by 20 points at home against the hapless New York Jets (0-7). A bettor placed a $1.29 million wager on Joe Biden to win the presidential election on United Kingdom-based Betfair Exchange. Arrowhead Pride | Kansas City Chiefs Schedule, News, Roster and Stats, Chiefs-Patriots: Stacking the box score for Week 14, 6 winners and 3 losers from the Chiefs’ blowout win against the Jets. The main takeaway here is that the Chiefs defense really limited Brady’s ability to throw the ball deep. Jets: Game and score predictions, 6 winners and 3 losers from the Chiefs’ blowout win against the Jets. While digging through the win probability data from the Patriots game, what jumped out most to me was near the end of the game, the model was confident the Chiefs would win the game. Sara Mallepalle and her team at CMU created a tool that not only allows us to scrape data from the Next Gen passing charts, but also gives us a statistical model (in nerd-speak, a generalized additive model) with which we can estimate how likely a pass is to be completed — given its location on the field. If you’d like to create graphs like this for yourself, I’ve posted the code online. The game has seen some play, however. Just as in the Week 7 game, I think we’ll see some reserve Chiefs players in the fourth quarter — and maybe some garbage-time New York scoring, too. The Chiefs have, however, been somewhat vulnerable to the very deep ball, allowing more completions very deep in the middle of the field and along the left sideline. Feel free to dm me on twitter if you have any questions. The Chiefs jump out to a big lead early, capitalizing on some miscommunications between Sam Darnold and his wideouts to stifle the Jets and win big. The blue areas are where the completion percentage is 50% or lower; the orange areas are where it is higher. The gambler placed a $40,000 wager to win $200,000 on the Giants on the money line at 5-1 odds. Arrowheadlines: Chiefs graded an ‘A’ for their mauling of the Jets, The top 5 greatest duos in Chiefs franchise history. “It’s hard to beat somebody that bad, but the Jets are that bad,” Whitelaw said. Passes closer to the line of scrimmage are easier to complete. This is going to get real U-G-L-Y real quick for the Jets. I expect to see defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo blitz Sam Darnold over and over again. The Tigers are still heavily favored. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey), Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) runs against Denver Broncos inside linebacker Josey Jewell (47) during a football game, Sunday, Oct. 25, 2020, in Denver. By continuing to browse or by clicking “I Accept Cookies” you agree to the storing of first-party and third-party cookies on your device. “But I would probably take 21 if it got there.”. The total has plummeted with a forecast of rain and high winds. This season, the Chiefs offense came out of the gate hot. Chiefs’ punter Tommy Townsend made the throw of the day. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey), Circa’s famed ‘MoDot’ has left the building, $251K table game jackpot hits at Strip casino, Las Vegas Strip cook dies weeks after being hospitalized with COVID-19, Thunderbirds to flyover Las Vegas on eve of Election Day. Matt Lane’s 34-17 prediction was second-best with 20 points of error. I’d be interesting to see how much of a workload Le’Veon Bell gets — but seeing as the Chiefs are likely to only have him for this year, why not make the most of him and give Edwards-Helaire some snaps off? Handicapper Alex B. Smith breaks down every game of Week 8 of the 2020 NFL season, with analysis, trends and final scores. And, of course, score predictions. How did the pass defense play against New England? The Chiefs defeated the Jets 35-9 at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. Contact Jim Barnes at or 702-383-0277. The methods behind this tool and model are open sourced — and if I’ve piqued your interest I highly suggest you check it out. What did it teach us? Arrowheadlines: Chiefs graded an ‘A’ for their mauling of the Jets, The top 5 greatest duos in Chiefs franchise history. The New York Jets are coming off of a half of football in which they had a net total of four yards, and that’s pretty indicative of their season. What did it teach us? The Jets have scored more than 17 only once all season and have been held to 10 or fewer points four times. To learn more or opt-out, read our Cookie Policy. Another interesting thing is how low the Travis Kelce’s fumble ranked. At odds of -2,700, Kansas City won’t add much value to the bet. Micah Roberts is 20-13-2, and Dave Tuley is 19-14-2. The line has dropped to Cleveland -2½ at home after opening -3. Ties in the standings are broken with prediction points error — how much each prediction misses the actual point spread and the number of points scored by each team. Bad beats, live line movement, halftime bets and more. Steve Spagnuolo should be able to tee off with his pressure schemes on this offensive line and Sam Darnold’s propensity to feel ghost pressure. Trailing by seven, Tom Brady led the Patriots down the field, scrambling for a first down at the Chiefs 12-yard line. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey), Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) scrambles against the Denver Broncos during a football game, Sunday, Oct. 25, 2020, in Denver. That proved to be accurate; it was the last first down the Patriots would earn. So let’s see how the staff — and our readers — think the Week 8 game between the 6-1 Chiefs and the 0-7 New York Jets will go down. The Chiefs advanced to 7-1 on the season with a big home win. Le’Veon Bell gets a bigger workload in his revenge game, and the Chiefs coast to a comfortable win. Mark Franco leads the pack with a 23-11-1 ATS record, and Doug Fitz is in second place at 21-14. 93% of them called for a Chiefs win — and 50% predicted a blowout. In the Kansas City Chiefs 43-16 victory over the Denver Broncos in Week 7, you might say that Byron Pringle’s 102-yard kickoff return for a touchdown — and Daniel Sorenson’s 50-yard pick-six — kind of messed up our predictions. Professional sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw said that as hard as it is to back a team like the Jets, “anytime you’re getting a number that big, you have to bet ’dog or nothing.”. Live scores, highlights and updates from the Chiefs vs. The NFL usually involves tight point spreads and games that come down to the final minute, but sometimes there are games like Jets-Chiefs. The Chiefs defeated the Jets 35-9 at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. Darnold leads Jets to third straight win, 34-3 over Raiders. The Dallas Cowboys scored a late touchdown to cover as 22½-point favorites in a 31-6 win over the Miami Dolphins, and the New England Patriots failed to cover -21 in a 30-14 victory over the Jets. Books won big again Sunday as underdogs went 8-3 ATS with six outright wins heading into Cowboys-Eagles on “Sunday Night Football.”. Jets (Sept. 22, 2019): On the same day as the above game, New England didn’t cover in a 30-14 victory. The Chiefs defense made a statement this week. This week, the Chiefs won’t even be useful to bettors who like to put a bunch of favorites together on a money-line parlay. The NFL games with the biggest point spreads in the past 10 years. This will be made possible when the Chiefs come out all guns blazing on both offense and defense. Whatever the cause, Brady only completed one pass beyond 20 yards. Make no mistake: this defensive performance was historic for a team playing the Patriots. As long as that’s handled, it’s going to be more like a practice. Jets football game By Scout Staff Nov 1, 2020 at 4:57 pm ET 1 min read It was the largest political bet ever placed on Betfair Exchange. “Do the Jets have enough offensive firepower to stay close?” he said.